Tony Sagami takes a closer look at China and how it's still managing to supply the world with its vast resources. Mr. Sagami discusses how China continues to be the workshop of the world. Investors are worried about the usual suspects: Subprime woes, a weakening dollar, and signs of a rapidly slowing economy that is suffering from $90-plus oil. And the volume of the recession or no recession debate is growing louder and louder.
Meanwhile, all this uncertainty is taking other stock markets for a roller coaster ride, too:
- The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index closed last Friday, November 16 at 27,614 - 4,000 points lower than its 31,638 peak reached on October 30.
- The Shanghai Composite Index has dropped from its record high of 6,092 on October 16 to 5,316.
- And the iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index exchange traded fund (FXI) has fallen from $218 on October 31 to $178.
According to Lipper Analytical Services, China-focused funds were up an average of 65.47% this year through November 8 and 92% over the last 12 months. Nothing has fundamentally changed. The recent weakness is largely a factor of two things:
(1) The state-run China Securities Journal reported that the People's Bank of China has directed banks in Shenzhen to limit individual withdrawals in hopes of stemming the flow of money from mainland China to the Hong Kong stock market.
(2) There is widespread fear of another increase in Chinese interest rates.
Both of these concerns are just indications of how very strong China is. Through the first nine months of 2007, China's GDP rose at an 11.5% annualized rate. Plus, 2007 will mark the fifth year in a row that the Chinese economy has expanded at a breakneck, double-digit pace.
China continues to be the workshop of the world. In the first nine months of this year, the country's exports increased 27.1% to $878 billion worth of products and it enjoyed a trade surplus of $185 billion, which is $75 billion more than last year.
"That stunning economic growth is rapidly creating an enormous middle class. From January to September, the per-capita income of urban residents hit 10,346 yuan, a 13.2% increase over the same period last year. That's important because it means China is developing its own consumer-based economy and becoming increasingly independent from a U.S. slowdown," exclaims Mr. Sagami.
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About Tony Sagami & Money And Markets
Tony Sagami, a veteran investment advisor and a leading expert on Asian markets, is the owner and founder of Harvest Advisors, an investment research and money management company. Mr. Sagami has been managing money for more than 20 years and is one of the early pioneers in the application of technical and quantitative analysis to mutual funds and stocks. He is a featured contributor to Weiss Research's daily e-letter, Money and Markets and monthly Safe Money Report as well as the editor of Asia Stock Alert.
Prior to establishing his own firm, Mr. Sagami was managing director at W.E. Donoghue & Co, serving additionally as the director of investment. During his successful career, he also held the position of account executive at Merrill Lynch.
Mr. Sagami's views on Asian markets, specifically Chinese investments, have been featured in publications such as The Wall Street Journal, Barron's, Kiplinger's, Smart Money, Business Week, New York Times, Washington Post, Investors Business Daily, Bloomberg, Financial Planning Times, Mutual FundsMagazine, Chicago Tribune, and the LA Times, as well as on CNBC and CNBC Asia.
Mr. Sagami holds a degree in economics from the University of Washington.
Money and Markets (www.moneyandmarkets.com) is a free daily investment newsletter from Dr. Martin Weiss and Weiss Research analysts offering the latest investing news and financial insights for the stock market, including tips and advice on investing in gold, energy and oil. Weiss Research, Inc. is located in Jupiter, Florida. For more information about our editors, or to set up an interview, please contact Jennifer Moran at 561-627-3300 or visit www.moneyandmarkets.com.