But there is one vital piece of the jigsaw that often gets lost under the sofa. Many punters gloss over it, and some leave it out of their calculations altogether. But I consider it to be one of the single-most important factors when weighing up a race-card -- the Going.
It doesn't matter whether I am analyzing the runners for the Vodafone Derby, the Cheltenham Gold Cup, or a class 6 apprentice handicap at Southwell -- the one question I always ask myself is "Will my horse be able to act over the prevailing ground conditions?"
This one piece of information, in my opinion, is more important than the distance to be raced, the track, the reputation of the trainer, and the jockey riding my horse.
The Going is the official state of the ground as judged by the race official known as the Clerk of the Course. The state of the Going underfoot can be categorized from one extreme to the other by one of the following descriptions: Hard, Firm, Good to Firm, Good, Good to Soft, Soft, and finally Heavy. Traditionally the ground had been described after race officials had walked the Course and prodded the ground with a walking-stick. Thankfully, today the technology exists to provide a much more consistent and objective assessment.
The Going is very important because often horses will have a preference for running (or "acting") on one type of ground over another. Its not surprising that horses of differing physical and genetic make-up will behave differently in they way they handle various racing surfaces.
So how can we as punters take advantage of these differences?
The first thing we can do is to get down to the paddock before a race and check out the size of the horses' feet. Why? Well, generally a horse with big hoofs akin to 'soup-plates' will be much better suited to softer ground. This is because the weight of the horse is spread across a bigger area, and it is able to 'skim' over the ground rather than getting stuck in the mud. Horses with smaller 'donkey' feet are more likely to sink that little further, and their progress will be that more labored.
Once the horses have left the paddock its time to take your position in the stands, and train your binoculars on the horses as they go to Post. Although the horses will not be running flat out, the shrewd observer can still take away a few more golden nuggets of information before deciding whether or not to place a bet.
The thing to look out for is the horse's 'action'. By that I mean exactly how the horse strides along. A horse with an action described as 'rounded' actually lifts its knees much higher with each stride, and will most likely perform better on soft ground. A horse with a 'daisy-cutting' stride barely lifts his hoofs off the racing surface. This type of horse is more likely to appreciate going which is firmer under foot. These generalizations are obviously never going to be 100% accurate, but you would be amazed how many times you can avoid placing a stupid bet on a horse who is not likely to relish the conditions. Making a profit from betting is just as much about avoiding losers as spotting winners.
When you are betting on a race for 2 year-olds there is often very little form to work on. So if the conditions underfoot are leaning towards either end of the Going scale, then you can uncover a value bet by observing the horses as they canter to the starting stalls. You can save yourself a bundle if you determine that the horse at the head of the market, is in fact showing signs that he will not find the Going to his liking.
If you know why and how one horse acts well on a certain surface, whilst another does not, then you are well on your way to increasing your returns from the bookmakers.