In deciphering how a horse does on a particular surface, it sometimes gets more complicated than meets the eye. For example, Mother Nature can intervene and create a “speed bias” where there wasn’t one before. A perfect example is Breeders Cup Day, November 4, 2006, at Churchill Downs. The day before (Friday the 3rd) there had been a deluge of rain onto the Churchill dirt and turf courses. On a standard dirt track, water drains away from a “crown” in the center of the track towards the inner and outer rails on the edges of the course. Horses generally race on the inner third of the course in order to travel the shortest distance around the track. When it rains, excess water drains toward the inside rail and is dispersed by a system of underground pipes beneath the rail. As a result, the rail tends to be the last part of the course to dry completely. This can create an advantage for the speed horses that use the rail. They love a wet track, and they are the only ones getting it when there is a rail bias like this.
There has been a big debate in the press whether there really was a “rail bias” on Breeders Cup Day. But there is no denying that of the five races run on dirt, no less than four were won by horses breaking from the inside post. Dreaming Of Anna used the rail to wire the Juvenile Fillies field by a very large margin. Street Sense , paying $32.40 to win, hugged the rail under Calvin Borel, a favorite tactic of Borel’s, and simply ran away from the competition in the Juvenile. Thor’s Echo , paying $33.20 to win, broke from the rail in the Sprint and, although he ran most of the race in the three and four-paths, he dominated the Sprint and was a huge surprise. And Round Pond , paying $29.80, was also a huge surprise in the Distaff, again breaking from the one-hole and riding the rail to victory. These four rail-riding wins came in the first four of five races on dirt in the Breeders Cup program. The first rail-riding winner, Dreaming Of Anna, came at 12:34 EDT, and the last rail winner, Round Pond, came at 3:59 EDT. The only dirt race in the Breeders Cup program without a rail winner was the one and one-quarter mile Breeders Cup Classic, in which 2006 Horse of the Year Invasor wore down favored Bernardini in mid-stretch. Off at 5:30 EDT, roughly five hours after the rail bias first appeared, the Classic marked the end of the bias. Brother Derek broke from the rail in the Classic, and finished a respectable fifth.
The rail bias argument was bolstered on February 10, 2007 when Dreaming Of Anna, in her 2007 debut, her first race since her Breeders Cup Juvenile Filly Championship performance, in the midst of Kentucky Derby fever speculation by her connections, finished a lackluster and well beaten third as the 2-to-5 heavy favorite in the Grade 3 Old Hat Stakes at Gulfstream Park. This is a race Dreaming Of Anna should have won by daylight. The problem is, she didn’t have that Breeders Cup rail bias working for her anymore. The final nail in the coffin [in the Breeders Cup rail bias debate] came on March 11, 2007. Round Pond finished off-the-board in the Rampart Handicap at Gulfstream Park as the prohibitive 2-to-5 favorite. In fact, of the foursome of Dreaming Of Anna, Street Sense, Thor’s Echo, and Round Pond, only Street Sense continued to race at a high level, winning the 2007 Kentucky Derby in May of 2007, after the Breeders Cup on November 4, 2006.
Some tracks don’t need rain to create a speed bias. Courses like Pimlico, in Maryland, Laurel in Maryland, Bay Meadows in California, Golden Gate in California, Delta Downs in Louisiana, Calder in Florida, Charles Town in Virginia, and Tampa Bay Downs in Florida, all seem to favor speed. Some argue it’s because of sharp turns, some argue it’s because of short straight-a-ways, and some argue it’s because of extra hard surfaces. Whatever the reason, front runners perform very well at these venues. One obvious reason that Delta Downs and Charles Town favor speed is the length, or perimeter, of the track, which is only three-quarters of a mile. These tracks are known in the vernacular as “bull rings” for their design. It seems the racehorses are always entering or leaving a turn, and never running straight!
How does the Monmouth Park main course, which is conventional dirt, stack up in this discussion? A completely new cushion for the Monmouth Park dirt course has been installed [similar to the standard cushions used on the east coast] and was ready in time for the May 12, 2007 season opening. The predominance of dirt tracks in America are one mile around, Belmont Park the rarity at one and one-half miles, and Monmouth Park is no exception. A dirt track is composed of about 80% sand, with the remaining 20% a combination of silt and clay. The old Arlington Park dirt track [recently replaced by a Polytrack engineered surface] had a significantly higher percentage of silt and clay, about 40%, and the composition proved a disadvantage for front runners and a help to closers.
The new Monmouth Park dirt surface, much like the one it replaced, is friendlier to front runners than to closers. In fact, the surface very closely resembles the Belmont Park dirt surface. I wouldn't go as far as to say there was a major speed bias working at Monmouth Park. A stone-cold closer can still win at Monmouth Park, but he will have to work harder than a comparably talented front runner or stalker. Add to that the relatively short stretch run of 990 feet, equivalent to 1 1/2 furlongs, and you can easily imagine a common variety front runner holding off a talented graded stakes winner. You don't buy it? Obviously you didn't watch Lawyer Ron's Monmouth debut on June 23, 2007 at one mile on the main course. A relatively minor stakes horse named Gottcha Gold got loose on the lead and managed to hold off a furiously closing Lawyer Ron by a long neck. This is the same Lawyer Ron who went on to dominate both the Grade 1 Whitney and the Grade 1 Woodward. Lawyer Ron is a vastly superior horse, but it was his first race over the course. Gotcha Gold is inferior to Lawyer Ron, but his strength is early speed, and with six previous races over the course he knew how to use it.
What about the Monmouth Park grass course? Most U.S. turf courses are less than a mile around. This is a direct result of race track design, as the turf courses are generally built inside the perimeter of a dirt course. Aqueduct race course in Ozone Park, New York has a seven furlong turf course built inside of a one mile dirt course built inside of a one and one-eighth mile dirt course. A brand new turf course was installed at Monmouth Park in early 2006, and made its debut in the summer of 2006. The Monmouth Park turf course is a seven furlong course built inside of a one-mile dirt course, as was its predecessor. Unlike its predecessor, the footing is very sure, at least until the new grass course gets beat up, and the turf is absolutely beautiful. The Monmouth turf course is much like other grass courses in the East, except it is prone to traffic problems. This is a common problem for seven furlong turf courses, as the turns tend to be sharp, and when the horses turn for home the bumping and grinding can get pretty serious. This is very bad news for the European grass runners, who are not used to such short turf courses, preferring the sweeping turns of the Belmont turf courses in America. But then again, the European grass runners are the best in the world. It sounds like a Mexican standoff.
We don’t ignore the racing form just because we spot a rail bias or other speed bias. We simply make adjustments for it. We use common sense. If a front runner at Monmouth Park is back in the same company that he always shows speed in, we give him a pace edge. But if he has recent races at Monmouth Park and couldn’t hold his speed for an entire race, we raise our eyebrows a little, because this guy can’t close the deal even with a speed bias working for him. We have to think on our feet. Generally a fast track means just that, a fast track. And a dry, fast track merits a high level of confidence. That doesn’t means you can’t make a bet on a sloppy track or on a track with a working bias, but you have to be aware that more surprises occur under these “unusual” conditions. And remember the lessons of Breeders Cup 2006.
Handicapping 101: Lifetime Races Over The Course
This is a much-overlooked but critical factor in handicapping the Breeders Cup World Championships. There are multiple courses on the same grounds at some race tracks. For example, the Belmont Park layout includes a main dirt course and two turf courses built inside the perimeter of the dirt course. We need to be specific when referring to a race course. Belmont Park on the dirt is not Belmont Park on the turf, and the Belmont Widener Turf course is not the Belmont Park Inner Turf course. If a race was held on the dirt at Aqueduct, it could be held on one of two distinct racecourses. How's that? Well, Aqueduct runs dirt races seasonally on outer and inner dirt racecourses.
Monmouth Park, host of the 2007 Breeders Cup World Championships, is home to a one mile main dirt course and a seven furlong turf course inside the perimeter of the dirt course. Both the dirt and turf courses have recently been replaced at Monmouth Park, but seem to display the same tendencies as before.
How a horse fits the course is a mysterious but essential clue to deciphering the outcome of the race. Horses that are stabled at a particular track have a “home field advantage.” They generally sleep in the same stall, work out on the same course that they race on, and do not suffer from the rigors of excessive travel. A horse’s home field advantage gives the handicapper an advantage, too. The more races a horse has on a course, the easier it is for a handicapper to gauge that horse’s true ability. The best and worst races a horse has over the course serve as ideal bookends to the typical race the horse will run the next time out.
Only the wealthiest owners can hire the elite trainers in the business to van (or fly) their star thoroughbreds cross-country in pursuit of racing’s richest purses. These horses don’t generally race on the same race track over and over again. They go to where the money is, and they tend to benefit from the perks of their lofty position. They get to hone their skills at the plushest training facilities in the country, usually training on engineered surfaces, like Polytrack, and they receive the finest equine medical care the world has to offer. All this traveling to and fro doesn’t help the handicapper, though. Even though a top tier trainer can be relied on to prepare his racehorse well, the horse may or may not like a particular venue. And if the horse does not have many races over a particular course, that’s fertile ground for surprise outcomes, regardless of quality. That’s why the Breeders Cup World Championships, forum for some of the richest purses in the world, consistently produce high payouts. Racing’s elite converge from all over the world to a venue which changes every year. Very few of these horses have many, if any, races over the course, and big surprises generally follow. Volponi won the 2002 Breeders Cup Classic for a huge return of $89.00 for a $2 win ticket. Arcangues won the 1993 Classic at a staggering price of $269.20 for $2. That’s equivalent to odds of better than 133-to-1.
Handicapping 201: Profiling A Breeders Cup Winner
The profile of a graded stakes, or handicap, winner is not complicated. The best horses in the business are on display in graded stakes races, and the horses that continually perform well at this level are going to be contenders over and over again. Generally, a stakes caliber horse will hold his form much longer than an allowance or claiming horse. However, if two similarly talented stakes horses meet, and one has 15 to 25 lifetime races, and the other has 30 or more races, the edge goes to the horse with 15 to 25 races. Graded stakes races are like prize fights between the top horses. They are run at remarkable speeds, and over time a stakes horse inevitably collects wear and tear, much like a top NFL running back who takes too may hits. The best stakes horses are full of heart and they don’t stop running, even after injury. Pine Island in the 2006 Breeders Cup Distaff, Go For Wand in the1990 Breeders Cup Distaff, and Barbaro in the 2006 Preakness, are among the champion thoroughbreds who lost their lives to the sport.
Once we have found a stakes contender who is not over raced, we need to make sure he is suited to the course and to the pace of the race. Consider the brilliant sprinter Lost In The Fog in the 2005 Breeders Cup Sprint at Belmont Park.
At first glance, Lost In The Fog looked to be a cinch. He had 10 wins in 10 starts and multiple Beyer figures over 110. The undefeated Lost In The Fog was heavily favored to win the 2005 Breeders Cup Sprint. That's not what happened. Lost In The Fog was heavily favored but soundly beaten, finishing seventh. Leading up to Breeders Cup, Lost In The Fog had won a race over the course, Belmont Park, but only by 1 1/4 lengths, the smallest margin by far of any of his 10 wins. Trainer Greg Gilchrist had prepared Lost In The Fog well but he couldn’t be sure if his star colt would get the surface. Now consider the talented sprinter Silver Train, eventual winner of the 2005 Breeders Cup Sprint. In the months before Breeders Cup, Silver Train had 4 races over the Belmont course with high Beyer figures of 108 and 110. This is what we’re looking for: a horse for the course. Silver Train paid a handsome $25.80 to win in the Breeders Cup Sprint, while odds-on favorite Lost In The Fog languished in seventh.
Finding top stakes horses with several races over the course is a common problem for handicappers. From earlier,
" if the horse does not have many races over a particular course, that’s fertile ground for surprise outcomes, regardless of quality. That’s why the Breeders Cup World Championships, forum for some of the richest purses in the world, consistently produce high payouts. Racing’s elite converge from all over the world to a venue which changes every year. Very few of these horses have many, if any, races over the course, and big surprises generally follow."
For Breeders Cup, there is no easy answer. But there is a strategy. We design a profile of a graded stakes winner. And here is what it looks like.
The ideal profile of a graded stakes winner is a top horse that:
(1) is not over raced
(2) has recent excellent graded stakes race over the course
(3) has demonstrated he is well suited to today’s pace
(4) has not established a pattern of losing in graded stakes races
(5) has an established winning trainer.
The age of the horses in a graded stakes race is important. This leads to some general observations about age and form:
(1) 2-year-olds are wildly unpredictable
(2) 3-year-old males tend to settle down in the spring onward
(3) fillies can be unpredictable until the spring of their fourth year
(4) 3-year-old colts and up are generally predictable
(5) 4-year-old fillies and up are generally predictable.
A horseplayer should never be betting favorites in stakes races for 2-year-olds. It’s not economical. The profile of a graded stakes winner is the same for younger horses as it is for older horses, but the older horses are much more likely to run to form.
Weight For Age
Breeders Cup World Championship races are run weight for age. In a weight for age stakes, the 2-year-olds are assigned a given weight, 122 for colts and geldings and 119 for fillies, the 3-year-olds are assigned a given weight, 124 in the Sprint and 122 in the Classic, and the 4-year-olds and up are assigned a higher weight, 126. Fillies and mares are generally allowed a 3-pound allowance. All these weights come from the Scale of Weights. Within each age category, heavier weights are assigned for shorter distances, and lighter weights are assigned for longer distances. Also, the younger horses are allowed to carry less weight earlier in the year while they are still growing and maturing.
In handicap races, each horse is assigned a “handicap” weight. In the golden age of horse racing, handicap weight assignments potentially affected the outcome of the race, but in modern racing this is not the case. In order to attract the top talent, race tracks have to offer, or assign, “reasonable” handicap weights to avoid discouraging owners and trainers from passing on these events. In the Breeders Cup World Championships, there are no handicap races.
The 2007 World Championships At Monmouth Park
This year's culminating event is the two-day World Championships on October 26 and 27, staging 11 races at Monmouth Park, New Jersey worth $23 million in purses. Three new $1 million races will be introduced on Friday, October 26. They are the Breeders Cup Dirt Mile for 3-year-olds and up, the Breeders Cup Filly & Mare Sprint for 3-year-olds and up fillies & mares, and the Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf.