“This is not just an ethanol bubble, there are several fundamentals that are showing the next 10 years for agriculture will be extremely favorable,” said Murray Wise, founder and CEO of the Westchester Group, Inc., at a recent presentation on global agriculture in Eaton, Colo.
Wise delivered a thoughtful presentation on global agriculture and its impact to a captivated group of producers, bankers and others in the agriculture industry—all eager to hear what this expert had to say. One attendee traveled to Eaton, Colo., from Phoenix, Ariz., to hear Wise’s insight and outlook on global agriculture.
Contrary to the general perception, Wise says ethanol is not the driving factor for optimism in agriculture. Instead, he points out, “We just have a great global set of circumstances. This is only the second demand-driven market in the last 30-plus years and we have a very exciting decade ahead of us.”
Wise says this demand-driven market is largely due to growing economies in other countries, especially in China, where they are experiencing increased demands in virtually all sectors of agriculture. Just to name a few examples, China used to be the world’s third largest exporter of corn, and over the next year or so they will become a net importer of corn. In 2007, China marketed over eight times as many hogs as the U.S., and is now importing 4 percent of U.S. pork production. Wise also touched on other key points about global supply and demand including:
Investments in agricultural land over the last 10 years have been phenomenal—the average total return has been just over 11 percent, exceeding the stock market, corporate bonds, European equities and Treasury Bills.
Annual world soy oil demand today exceeds 36 million metric tons, up from 15 million metric tons in 1990.
Even with rising milk prices, world milk demand remains strong, causing supplies to be tight.
Following Wise’s presentation, the group of approximately 50 people in attendance at the Eaton, Colo. meeting was enthusiastic and grateful to have been provided with a sense of optimism for the industry they are passionate about.
Alan Sears, general manager of Five Star Cattle, had some positive feedback following the presentation. “Murray’s presentation was impressive, and I learned a lot of things I didn’t know about the Chinese market; it really made sense to me. It was good to get a global perspective and some insight from someone who has done the research and knows the facts,” said Sears.
“My focus is on the grain and livestock markets,” continued Sears. “I had a broad idea of what those markets were doing, but Murray provided many detailed facts to reinforce what I thought was going on.”
Land values in the U.S. have been on the rise and in the spotlight, especially within the last year. Midwestern land values rose 22 percent in 2007, but European countries are seeing the same and even greater increases in land values. Irish land values increased 27 percent in just six months to reach an average of $7,838 per acre for arable/tillable land.
Wise gives a wealth of guidance and advice to his clients, and also takes his own advice when investing in agriculture. “My optimism is reflected in the fact that I’ve bought more land in the last 12 months than in any five-year period in my career in agriculture,” says Wise.
The event also introduced attendees to Scott Shuman, who manages Westchester’s new Eaton, Colo. office and who helped coordinate the presentation. One of Shuman’s invitees was Dana Scheidecker, the owner of Northern Colorado Agribusiness, an agricultural accounting and consulting firm. Scheidecker noted, “I will be able to use what I learned from Murray’s presentation when I meet with my farm clients. It gives us more confidence and helps us make decisions to keep moving forward with grain and livestock production.”
“We are in a new era in agriculture; we aren’t used to having optimistic forecasts,” Scheidecker continued. “I appreciated Murray’s ‘inside’ thoughts and interesting perspective.”
Westchester Group, Inc. is a leading agricultural asset management firm, providing a complete range of agricultural real estate and management services as well as auction services. The company specializes in portfolio management and acquisition of farmland for institutional and corporate clients and individual farmers, as well as individual investors. Westchester manages a diverse range of crops for their clients, including corn, soybeans, almonds, wine grapes, apples and citrus